Mathematical Elimination

Most websites that carry the Major League standings these days have a column with an elimination number.  Looking at this number from the point of view of the first place team, it can also be called the "magic number."  This is the number of games the first place team wins plus the losses of the team in question that will total the elimination number.

But there's a factor missing in "mathematical elimination" that I wish would appear in the elimination number.  I will explain.

Scenario #1:  Suppose Team A is in first place, two games ahead of Team B with three games left to play.  Team A's magic number (which is the same as Team B's "elimination number") would be two.  Team B can win the division if they win their three games and Team A loses its three.  Or the could tie and Team B could win a playoff game.  That's simple. 

Scenario #2:  Now suppose Teams A and B are tied for first place, and Team C is two back with three to play.  Team C has an elimination number of two, but both Team A and Team B have magic numbers of four against each other.  Well, in this case it is less likely, but if Team C wins all its games and both Team A and Team B lose their games, Team C still will win the division.  In this scenario, Team C still has a chance.

Scenario #3:  Well, there's a potential catch to scenario #2.  What if Team A plays Team B the last three games of the year?  Even though Team C is only two back with three to play, because one of the teams, A or B, necessarily will win at least two of three against the other, Team C has already been mathematically eliminated!  Their "elimination number" is still two, but it's impossible for them to win.  They were already eliminated at least from the previous game played.  Elimination numbers don't take into consideration the number of games played between multiple teams in front of that given team.  And if there are more than two teams ahead of the given team, it becomes even more complex.  In short, the problem is that guaranteed future wins are not counted in the elimination number.

A real life example came from 1989.  With a month left in the season, the Giants were 5 games up on the Padres.  A short news clip noted that the woeful Braves were mathematically eliminated the previous day.  The assumption was that the Braves could have won all their remaining games, the Giants would lose all their games, and the Padres would lose all games but at most five.  A three-way tie would result and the Braves could win a tie-breaker.  But upon looking at the schedule, I saw that the Giants and Padres still had six games against each other to play.  How could the Giants lose all six and the Padres win five at most?  Only if both teams lost the same game, which couldn't happen.  So I figured out that the Braves were actually eliminated the day before that.

How can the real elimination number be calculated?

Wild Card Spells Death of the Great Pennant Races

The Giants and Padres (and Rockies!) just had a great pennant race.  The NL West wasn't decided until the last day of the season, and the two teams in the race were playing each other in the final of a three game series.  As great as the race was, it was diminished a bit by some bad ball played by both teams.  The two teams weren't the greatest.  There is, however, another kind of pennant race that is much better.

That kind of race is between two super-teams.  Teams that win a lot of games.  Upper 90's or 100+ win teams.  I was part of one of the greatest pennant races in history.  The 1993 race between the Giants and Braves, where each team was tied at 103 wins going into the last game of the season.  The Braves completed a season sweep of the Rockies, while the Giants lost to their arch rival Dodgers 12-1, who relished the spoiler role as one of the two greatest rivalries in baseball.  They knocked the Giants out of the race.  My 400 mile drive home from LA that evening was the longest of my life.  I-5 was a trail of thousands of Giants fans that made the trek.

This year had one such hypothetical pennant race.  The Yankees and Rays came out of the chute on fire, playing .700-.750 ball in the early part of the season.  They were clearly the best two teams in baseball the first half of the season.  They were neck and neck all the way down the stretch drive.  Going into the last day of the season, they had the same record, just like the Giants and Braves did in '93.  The Yankees even played their arch rivals, the Red Sox, on the last weekend of the season, in the other of the two greatest rivalries in baseball, just like the Giants/Braves race.  It went down to the last game of the season, just like the Giants/Braves, and the Red Sox beat them to knock the Yankees out of first place, just like the Giants/Braves.  It had all the marks of one of the great pennant races in recent memory.  Except it wasn't a pennant race.  Not even close.  Nobody even cared about it.  All season long.

The reason is that the race was so great that both teams were going to make the playoffs in the end.  There was no race.  There's not much difference at all in winning the division and winning the wild card.  Maybe a couple of home games in the playoffs.  Maybe.  It wasn't the exciting Olympic 100 meter finals.  It was a meaningless qualifying heat where everybody who is anybody makes it to the finals.  In fact, if you look at it from a probability standpoint, the better the record of the two teams, the more likely it is that the second place team will be the wild card.  So, the wild card has given an inversely proportional relationship between the greatness of the race and the excitement it creates.  It shouldn't have to be this way.

THE GIANTS WIN!

Avoiding catastrophe, the Giants put it together and won the NL West today!  Despite losing 12 games (I think) to the Padres this year, they won the last game of the season to be the last team to clinch their division.  The Atlanta Braves are coming to town for a rematch of the 2002 NLDS, where the Giants won in surprising fasihion. 

GO GIANTS!

A Giant Collapse?

Well it appears the Giants are in the middle of yet another enormous October collapse.  Needing to win only one of the three games (or a fourth tie-breaker, if necessary), Matt Cain was shelled last night.  The Padres don't even know  how to score six runs in a game, and the pitching staff that led the majors in September ERA since 1965 (1.76) is coughing it up.  Today, Barry Zito walked in two runs in the first inning, and was touched for two more by the fourth.  Sanchez goes tomorrow.

The ultimate collapse could be to have the Braves lose 2 of 3 to the Phils and tie the Giants/Padres for the wild card.  The Giants could lose the division to the Padres in a tie-breaker on Monday and lose the wild card to the Braves in a tie-breaker on Tuesday.  Wednesday morning the Giants magic number would still be one, but with no games left to play.  It would re-set to 163 for the 2011 season.  I just hope one of the most unbelievable collapses in history doesn't happen.  If the Braves are swept this weekend, then the Giants will back-door a playoff position no matter how many games they lose.  So, Go Phillies!

Magic Number Is One

Well, don't look now, but the Padres have nearly collapsed and the Giants are on a win streak.  They play a three game series this weekend, and a fourth tie-breaker in case the Padres sweep.  The Giants would need to lose all four for the Padres to win it.  I have some excitement, but mostly reserved anticipation.  I hope they're not passing out those rally towels at the game tonight in anticipation of the clincher.  I was at one of those games in 2000, and the air was full of lint and everybody's eyes were scratchy.

But, here's to a first playoff spot since 2003.  It's about time.

Charlie Manuel and the Integrity of the Game

Eyes are on Phillies manager Charlie Manuel this upcoming weekend as they play the Braves to close out the season.  The Phils have already clinched the division, but the Braves are fighting for a wild card berth with whoever doesn't win the NL West, the Padres or Giants.  There is concern on behalf of the west team that Manuel will juggle his rotation and rest his stars to get ready for the playoffs.  This would give the Braves an unfair advantage in the wild card race.  The same situation arose several years ago with the Braves' Bobby Cox.

A long standing ethical baseball tradition holds that if you're playing against a team at the end of the season, and that team is in the pennant race, you push your experimentation with your September call-ups aside, and go at the game with your best.  This guarantees the other team in the pennant race that things will be fair.  This upholds the integrity of the game.  And I completely agree with this tradition.

Except in the Phillies' case.  Why?  Well, traditionally, baseball didn't have divisions.  Each league consisted of all teams racing for the same pennant.  This meant that only the teams that were no longer in any pennant race at all were facing teams that were.  The season no longer mattered to them because they had no shot at the pennant, or a yet to be created division title.  When division play came along, however, each division had an even number of teams, and the schedule guaranteed that the last several weeks were played amongst teams in their own divisions.  So the tradition of not rolling over against a playoff contender stood.

But then several new developments came on the scene.  With AL expansion in '77, and NL expansion in '93, there were no longer an even number of teams in a division.  This meant that during the pennant race, there was always at least one series playing between teams of opposite divisions.  Then with realignment in '94, a wild card was introduced along with three divisions.  Most divisions didn't (and still don't) have an even number of teams.  Now, it's guaranteed that teams playing out of their divisions, and against wild card contenders, happens more often.  So, we're bound to see this situation occur where a team that has already clinched a playoff spot will play against teams that haven't yet.

But it's also another baseball tradition, albeit one of strategy, to do whatever necessary to get your team ready for the playoffs.  Rest stars, juggle rotations, use your call-ups.  And traditionally, since that team had already clinched, it meant that no other team they faced was still in a pennant race.  They could afford to lose games after clinching, since those games had no importance, whereas the post-season games did.

So, what the addition of a wild card and interdivision play caused by odd numbers of teams within divisions has done is to pit two baseball traditions against each other in a head-to-head fashion.  And if you're the team that has already won a spot in the playoffs, your self-interest trumps all others.  Period.  In essence, what people are calling on Charlie Manuel to do is to jeopardize his team's ability to win the World Series just to satisfy the desires of a team that obviously hasn't played well enough to have already clinched.  And that is a ridiculous thing to ask.

The real question about the integrity of the game that should be asked is whether interdivision play at the end of the season and a wild card format are the ideas that compromise the integrity of the game.  Even though my Giants could be affected by Manuel's managing decisions this weekend, I realize that it's in his best interest to try to win the World Series in any way possible.  I would expect nothing less than for Manuel to tell his critics to shove it, even if those critics were Giants fans and management.

Back In First Place - Again

Yesterday, the Giants won and the Padres lost, allowing the Giants to take first place.  Yet again.  It seems this has happened a hundred times over the last week.  The Giants took two out of three from the Rockies and two out of three from the Cubs before that.  But they've lost first place several times, too.  The Giants need to figure out that this is a time of season when winning two out of three simply isn't enough.  There are four teams striving for two playoff spots.  The Giants, Padres and Rockies are all in the division race, and also in the wild card race along with the Braves.  Somebody is going to win, and somebody is going to go home.  Going home isn't an option.

Over the last three weeks, the Giants pitching staff has been on just about the hottest streak in baseball history.  They set a modern record by going 18 consecutive games allowing three runs or less.  Yet in the first 16 of those games, they went a meager 10-6.  The hitting has been a season-long problem.  All these 1-0 games are killing some fingernails out there.  It seems that the showdown will be the last weekend of the season between the Giants and Padres.  Can this be the year?

We're Still In This Thing

Nevermind that the Giants are sucking and that not only are they far behind the Rockies in the wild card race, there are now three teams in front of them in that race. Nevermind that the elimination number stands at three. We're still in this thing.

Playoff Bound?

Okay, it's only mid-June, but if the season ended today, the Giants would make the playoffs! Yes, it's early and the Giants have had their share of struggling, but they've also had some great pitching that has helped greatly with some important win streaks.

Still, though, the Giants need a couple of big bats. Will Sabean work a deal before the trade deadline? Will it help them? I know that they'll probably have some more offense-inflicted losing streaks this year. Maybe it will come down to which team has winning streaks at the right time. I just hope it's the Giants.

There's still hope of a World Series victory this year. I'm not holding my breath, but if happens, I'll take it.

Clinching Games

I've been to three games that were the deciding games of the World Series. Game 5 in 1988, Game 4 in 1989 and game 4 in 1990. In each game, the winning team celebrated. I've also been to three games that decided a pennant. Game 5 of the 1989 NLCS, game 4 of the 1990 ALCS and game 5 of the 2002 NLCS (walk-off win). I've also been to game 3 of the 1981 ALDS western division (strike forced) series.

I've also seen Giants division clinches in 1997 and 2000. I'm not sure about others, as I may have seen an A's division clinch in the '88-'92 period.

Not only have I never been to a game 7, I've never been to a game 6. Maybe someday...

Tiebreaker Possibilities Galore

Heading into the last weekend of the season, there are some pretty good tiebreaking situations still possible. The Twins just swept the White Sox (in extras tonight) to pass them by 1/2 game. The Brewers beat the Pirates in extras to keep pace with the Mets in the wildcard, and the Mets are only 1 game behind the Phillies.

If the Twins and Sox finish within a half game, then the Sox need to play a makeup game against Detroit on Monday. If this lands them in a tie, the Sox and Twins will have a playoff on Tuesday. If the Phils, Mets and Brewers all tie with the same record, the Phils and Mets will playoff on Monday to determine the division winner, and the loser will play Milwaukee on Tuesday to determine the wildcard.

If the Brewers and Mets each get swept this weekend and the Astros sweep, there might be a three way tie for the wildcard, and would force a makeup game on Monday between the Astros and Cubs to determine if the Astros are to tie. I think there might be a mathematical tiebreaker between the Rays and Red Sox in case they tie. Either way they're both in the playoffs. I'd love to see as many tiebreaker situations arise as possible in one year. Now that would be a news story.

The Longest Drive Home

One of the greatest pennant races in my life took place during the 1993 season. The Giants and Braves were hot that year, the Giants' first year with Bonds, both winning over 100 games and entered the last game of the year tied for first place with records of 103-58. The Giants closed out their season with a four game series in Los Angeles against the hated Dodgers. The Giants won the first three and the Braves won the first two of their three against the Rockies.

I drove the nearly 400 miles down to LA to witness that fateful last game of the year and bought tickets from a scalper. I stayed with some friends - not big Dodger fans but they cheered for them nonetheless. The first three games of the series were amazing in that there were more Giants fans in attendance than Dodger fans. The last game, however, was fan appreciation day and Dodger fans had bought tickets to that game all year long. Still, there were at least 15,000 Giants fans there. Dusty Baker made a controversial decision to start young head-case Salomon Torres instead of veteran Dave Burba. The Giants were nuked, 12-1. Meanwhile the Braves completed a season sweep of the Rockies, winning all 13 games and the division on the last day. The Giants won 103 games and watched the playoffs on TV.

The long drive home was painful. There were thousands of Giants fans on I-5 for hundreds of miles. I stopped at a gas station and a rest stop and both places were packed with fans.

Season Ends Wild, Wicked and Weird

Trevor Hoffman spewed a playoff berth for the second time in three days in a blown save far more tragic than the previous one. I actually feel sorry for him. And the final play of the season was as bizarre a play as I've seen in years, and topped a thrilling 13 inning game. The wild-card winning sacrifice fly involved three individuals at the plate. Would be Rockie scorer Matt Holliday, Padres catcher Michael Barrett and ump Tim McClelland. Each one acted in a mysterious way.

Holliday slid (slud?) head first into Barrett's foot, which blocked the plate. Holliday missed the plate completely, but Barrett dropped the ball, and it squirted out. Holliday lay dazed in the dirt without the slightest attempt to return to tag the plate. Actaully, though, this may have been a wise move, proving to the ump that he touched the plate. Or he could have been laying there too injured to care about a possible World Series victory. McClelland saw the ball squirt away, and in body language that is only used when both the tag isn't made and the runner misses the plate, McClelland did nothing, indicating that the play was still on. Barrett knew that Holliday missed the plate because he retrieved the ball and tagged Holliday. But McClelland signalled a weak, non-challant safe sign just before Barrett tagged him. Barrett let up in his effort as McClelland made his call. Why didn't McClelland make the call right away? And why didn't Barrett protest the blown call? Or at least tag Holliday vigorously in celebration of the out? After all, the season was on the line. Holliday was attended to by medical personnel as the rest of the team celebrated wildly, completely ignorant of Holliday's injury.

And by the way, TBS's coverage of the game was the weirdest, and least interesting I've ever seen. Who were those clowns in the booth and why were those guys so bizarre? Anyway, it should be a great set of playoff series.

What a Finish This Season Has

I never would have guessed the Mets would collapse like they have. I always ask the question of what will happen if a team folds at the last minute. I had the Mets still winning the wild card. But now they're in a position of buying 25 new plasma HD TV's to watch the post season. I'm not feeling sorry yet. On the other hand, the Padres were one pitch away from the post season on Saturday with Trevor Hoffman on the mound in the 9th inning against the Brewers. Tony Gwynn Jr. was the party pooper, of all ironies. If the Pads lose tomorrow, Hoffman's blown save will be one of baseball's biggest. I'm hoping for a Rockies victory. It would be great if they kept it up and won it all.

The Philllies were in first place all of about 2 seconds this whole season. But the last 2 seconds of the season is good enough. The Brew Crew went non-alcoholic in the second half, and allowed the mediocre record Cubs in as NL Central champs. I hope the Cubs are swept by the D-Backs. It'll be interesting to see the attendance for the tie-breaker in Denver. The Rockies spent years selling out as an expansion team.

A Seven Team Race

The National League has hot pennant races during the last week of the season, with all three divsions and the wild card still undecided. I'm hoping for a three-way tie for the wild card between the Padres, Phillies and the very hot Rockies. A tie for the Central between the Cubs and Brewers would add another playoff game. There would be two days of single game playoffs before the divisional playoffs started on Wednesday. That would be awesome.

In the Driver's Seat

Both the A's and Giants are in identical situations... and in the driver's seat. Both are 4 games out with 7 to play, and starting a 4 game series with the team in front of them. If each team wins all the rest of the games this season, each will win the division title. A 4 game sweep with the identical number of wins in the last series as the Angels and Padres will force one-game playoffs in each division. Win those and win the division. Will either happen?

We'll wait and see....

At the Finish Line

Here's my wishes for the 8 teams I'd like to see in the playoffs. In order of East, Central, West and Wild Card. I'm including miracles for those still mathematically alive.

Boston, Chicago, Oakland, Cleveland.
Philadelphia, St. Louis (they've clinched so I have to accept them), San Francisco, Houston.

Oakland over Cleveland, ChiSox over BoSox.
Philly over Houston, SF over StL.

Oak over Chi, SF over Philly

SF over A's in Bay Bridge Series.........

But in reality (my guess): Hou over Atl, StL over SD, Cle over NYY, LAA over Chi
StL over Hou, Cle over LAA
StL over Cle

The Giants' (Slim) Chances

Starting today, there are five full weeks left in the season. This marks the point in the schedule where a majority of NL West ball is intra-division. Four of the five teams play each other at all times from now until October and each team plays two series against each other team. But I keep hearing from odd sources how if the Padres, D-Backs and Dodgers keep losing, and the Giants, at only 7 games out, keep (ahem!...start!) winning, the Giants could end up winning this thing. Let's analyze this for a few minutes...

Although it's still mathematically possible, it's quite improbable. One problem is that if any teams ahead of the Giants lose, other teams ahead of the Giants need to beat them. Eighty percent of the remaining NL West schedule is intra-division, with 60% being between the four "contending" teams, SD, AZ, LA and SF, and a whopping 40% between the teams ahead of the Giants. So, in reality the teams ahead of the Giants need to play combined .500 splits between them so that one team doesn't run away with it. The Giants need to catch and pass all three teams. Needless to say, in addition to winning, the Giants will need some big-time help. Consider this... if either AZ or LA play .500 ball the rest of the way, the Giants will need to go 19-14 just to stay in it. If the Padres play .500 ball, the Giants will need to go 24-9 just to tie! So just how will those teams lose enough other games to help the Giants out?

Well, of the 60% of games not played between the teams ahead of the Giants, a full third of them are against the Colorado Rockies, the worst team in the league. Combined with the need for the Giants to win (another third of their games are against the Giants), this would mean the Rockies will have to play Jeckyl & Hyde baseball. Skunk SD, AZ and LA and roll over against the Giants. The remaining third of the games are out-of division games against mostly (you could have guessed it) losing teams. Now, hold your hat, it gets worse.

In fact, with five weeks left for each of the three teams ahead of the Giants, a combined total of 15 weeks of baseball will be played by them. And out of those 15 weeks of baseball a grand total of THREE GAMES will be played (by the Padres) against ONE TEAM that is only FOUR GAMES above .500.

Of all the pennant races in history, this would be by far the biggest miracle ever if the Giants won it. Go Giants!?

The Wild-Card Un-Race

Yawn. It's that time of year again when a giant glob of also-rans hovering at about five or six games above .500 vie for the almost-as-privileged spot as division winners earn. Yes, it's the wild-card race. But sitting in a lounge chair drinking pina coladas isn't considered a race. Nothing against sitting and drinking, as it has its place in life, but a "race" involves running. Is it a race when nobody is moving? I just saw the NL wild-card standings on FOX Saturday baseball, and the Brewers were shown in that list, just a few games out, but they were under .500 for the season. Oh, boy!

It's funny how the wild-card standings, which include all the teams in the league except three, start showing up in May. The Red Sox are only 1/2 game behind the Yankees on Memorial Day, but they're leading the wild-card race! Oh, boy! The standings won't show the Yankees, because by being 1/2 game better than the Sox they've played themselves out of the race, but they have as much chance of winning the wild-card. All they would need to do to get into the wild-card race would be to lose a few games.

Then there exists the confusing position of being in two races, the division race and the wild-card race. Your team is one game out in the division and one game out in the wild-card race, and the teams ahead of you in each race are playing each other. Who do you cheer for?

Just a few reasons I'm opposed to the three division plus wild-card format (and opposed to the overall NFL-ization in general) in baseball.

Loser Takes It All?

Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL (it's routine in the NBA and NHL), Major League Baseball has never had a non-winning team in post-season play. This year might be an exception. The entire NL West is still under .500, and with each "contender" with several out-of-division series left that they could lose, and the possibility of playing .500 ball within the division, we could have a loser win the division.

Then they could go 11-8 in the post season and take home the trophy. It would be kinda funny. I'm rooting for any non-Dodger NL West team to win it all.